Rainbow Rare Earths: A Rare Opportunity

Rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium remain central to EV motors, turbines, and defense tech, powering the global push to electrify transport and energy. Demand is accelerating as Western supply chains seek secure alternatives to China. Rainbow Rare Earths’ Phalaborwa project is advancing as one of the few Western-aligned sources capable of producing both light and heavy rare earth oxides from phosphogypsum waste. It offers exposure to a critical enabler of the green and digital transition.

Rainbow’s core innovation recovers rare earths from phosphogypsum, turning fertilizer waste into value through a proprietary flow sheet that removes the need for mining or cracking. Pilot work at Phalaborwa has validated the process and added a Ce-depletion step, producing material above 93% purity while cutting capital and operating costs. Trade-off studies for the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) are now underway, aiming to finalise in 2026. The Uberaba project in Brazil is applying the same tech at larger scale, underscoring scalability and potential global replication. Few projects combine this level of product quality, low cost, and ESG strength.

Rainbow’s process converts waste into strategic supply, turning phosphogypsum liabilities into rare earth assets. Backed by the U.S. Development Finance Corporation’s $50M commitment and partnerships with Mosaic and MP Materials, the company sits at the intersection of ESG, geopolitics, and critical minerals policy. It advances the Western push for a secure, non-Chinese rare earth chain, while its Equator-compliant permitting and site rehabilitation reinforce sustainability credentials. Rainbow’s projects are designed to deliver both impact and independence across the next wave of critical mineral development.

• Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS): Trade-off studies and detailed engineering progressing, with final DFS targeted for 2026 to optimise economics and scale.

• Brazil pipeline: Economic Assessment (EA) for the Uberaba project progressing with Mosaic, confirming scalability and multi-jurisdictional potential.

• Offtake validation: MP Materials partnership and U.S. DFC backing reinforce commercial demand; further offtake updates expected through 2026.

• Environmental Permitting Completion: Final EIA and stack redesign approvals targeted for 2026 under South Africa’s NEMA framework. This will be a key de-risking trigger for financing and construction readiness.

• Project Financing Milestone: Rainbow aims to close a $300 m blended package including the U.S. DFC’s $50 m cornerstone. Completion would unlock EPC contracts and signal market confidence.

• Uberaba Economic Assessment (EA): The joint EA with Mosaic is advancing, evaluating scalability and economics. Positive outcomes could accelerate Brazil development and expand Rainbow’s global footprint.

• Phalaborwa Commissioning and Production (2027): First high-margin REO output from Phalaborwa will mark Rainbow’s shift to a cash-generating producer. Ramp-up is expected to be faster than typical mining projects given the brownfield setup and proven process.

• Global Expansion (Brazil and Beyond): The Uberaba project with Mosaic is advancing and could anchor Rainbow’s next growth phase. The company is building partnerships in Saudi Arabia to replicate its waste-to-REE model globally and scale long-term valuation.

Rainbow has proven its flowsheet at pilot scale, but full commercialisation remains the key hurdle. The next step is achieving 99%+ NdPr purity and consistent throughput as part of the 2026 DFS. Any delays or cost overruns during scale-up could affect financing and offtake momentum. Ongoing engineering optimisation in Johannesburg helps de-risk this phase.

Phalaborwa’s NEMA environmental approvals are expected in 2026, running alongside financing and construction readiness. While the brownfield setting reduces complexity, shifts in policy or leadership could delay progress. Rainbow’s compliance with IFC and Equator Principles supports ESG alignment but does not eliminate timing risk.

Rainbow’s economics hinge on NdPr, Dy, and Tb pricing, which remain volatile despite NdPr stabilising near $80/kg. Extended weakness could weigh on NPV and financing terms. Structural demand from EVs, wind, and defence continues to underpin long-term rare-earth fundamentals.