Government Validates Billion-Dollar Economics
India government auction for $120M validates economics, tribunal awards fair value
Panthera Resources: India Arbitration Creates Billion-Dollar Upside
UK-listed mining explorer betting £44m market cap on $1.58bn legal claim against India over cancelled Rajasthan gold license
Updated: Oct 30, 2025
Energy & Materials
Bull & Bear Case
An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.
Bull Case
Strong Legal Framework Under Investment Treaty
Memorial filed May 2025 details treaty breaches, precedent favors investors
No-Risk Legal Bet With Massive Upside
Third-party funding eliminates costs and African assets provide backup value
Bear Case
India Could Delay Payments for Years
Sovereign immunity lets India stall payments despite losing arbitration
India Challenges the Entire Legal Case
India challenges treaty applicability. The case could be dismissed before examining the evidence
Winner-Takes-All Outcome
Single adverse ruling impacts investment regardless of underlying gold value
Investment Thesis
Overview of buy and sell case of the business.
Why Invest?
Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.
Government Validates Billion-Dollar Economics
India auctioned Panthera's Bhukia gold license for $120 million upfront plus 65.3% ongoing royalties. This government auction proves the deposit has massive value. It also proves India stole Panthera's discovery to give it to a domestic company.
Strong Legal Protection Under Investment Treaty
The 1999 Australia-India treaty explicitly protects mining investments from government seizure. India cannot cancel Panthera's prospecting license and auction the same area without paying compensation. International law is on Panthera's side.
No-Risk Legal Bet With Massive Upside
LCM Funding pays all $13.6 million in legal costs. Shareholders pay nothing if the case fails. If Panthera wins, even partial success delivers 10-30x returns. The downside is capped at today's £44 million market value.
Catalysts
The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.
India's Response Due February 27, 2026: India must file its counter-memorial responding to Panthera's May 16, 2025 damage claim. This will reveal India's full defense strategy and whether they admit or deny the key facts about cancelling Panthera's Bhukia prospecting license.
Phase 1 Hearing Schedule Confirmed: The arbitration panel will combine jurisdiction and merits in Phase 1, allowing speedy resolution of whether the Australia-India treaty applies without calculating damages until legal principles are established.
Arbitration Hearings Examine Evidence: Phase 1 proceedings will review Panthera's evidence that India breached the investment treaty by denying the Bhukia license then auctioning the same area to domestic companies, while India presents its defense.
Bhukia Gold Remains Undeveloped: The cancelled June 2024 Bhukia auction means India's proven 7.2 million ounce gold deposit generates no revenue while arbitration costs accumulate, potentially creating settlement pressure.
Final Arbitration Award Sets Global Precedent: The tribunal's decision on whether India's alleged cancellation of foreign mining licenses followed by domestic auctions requires compensation will establish template for investment treaty enforcement worldwide.
Key Risks
Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.
India Could Delay Payments for Years
Even if Panthera wins, collecting $1.58 billion from the Indian government is hard. Countries have sovereign immunity. India could appeal, hide assets, or use diplomatic pressure to avoid paying quickly.
India Challenges the Entire Legal Case
India argues the 1999 treaty doesn't apply to Panthera's investment. If the arbitration tribunal agrees, the entire case gets thrown out before looking at the evidence. No compensation, no matter how strong the facts.
Winner-Takes-All Outcome
This is a binary bet. Either Panthera wins big or loses everything. There's no middle ground. One bad legal ruling threatens the entire investment thesis, regardless of the gold being real and valuable.