Osisko Metals: Quebec Copper Play Backed by Majors, Riding Supply Deficit

Gaspé produced copper historically, so the geology is understood and infrastructure exists nearby. Recent drilling continues to extend mineralization, adding ounces without starting from scratch. With an experienced COO now in place and strategic backers aligned, the path from resource growth to development decision shortens, exactly when project optionality gets priced in.

Hudbay, Agnico Eagle, Franco-Nevada, and La Caisse committed capital in December 2025, signaling confidence in Gaspé's geology and economics. When operating miners deploy their own cash into a junior, it validates the asset and often precedes acquisition interest. This funding also extends the runway, removing near-term dilution risk while drilling continues.

Copper hit record highs in early 2026 on supply deficits and tariff-driven stockpiling by US buyers. Global mine supply hasn't kept pace with electrification and grid buildout, creating structural tightness. Gaspé sits in a mining-friendly jurisdiction with existing infrastructure, positioning Osisko to benefit as developers get revalued in a supply-constrained market.

• Drill Results Could Extend Gaspé Resource and Upside Drilling results from the ongoing program could extend mineralization further, adding ounces and improving project economics. High-grade intercepts would validate the resource expansion thesis and support a higher valuation multiple, especially with copper prices elevated and strategic investors already positioned.

• Copper Price Path Will Dictate Near‑Term Valuation: Copper price direction remains critical near term. Sustained pricing above US$12,000 per tonne keeps project economics attractive and maintains developer sentiment. Any resolution on tariffs or demand signals from China and US infrastructure spending will directly impact how the market values pre-production assets like Gaspé.

• Updated Resource or PEA Should Crystalise Project Scale and Economics: Updated resource estimate or preliminary economic assessment would quantify the value added from recent drilling and provide clarity on scale, grade, and capital requirements. This milestone often triggers rerating as the project moves from exploration story to defined development opportunity, particularly with strategic backers able to fund or acquire.
  
  

• Permitting and Community Buy‑In Will Derisk Path to Construction: Permitting progress and community engagement milestones derisk the path to construction. Quebec has a mining-friendly reputation, but environmental and social approvals still take time. Visible advancement here removes uncertainty and shortens the timeline to production, making the asset more attractive to acquirers or project financiers.

• M&A or Build Decision Likely as Gaspé Proves Scale and Economics: Development decision or takeover offer becomes likely once resource size and economics are proven. Hudbay and Agnico already hold stakes and need copper supply to feed their operations. If Gaspé's economics hold at sustained copper prices, acquisition becomes cheaper than building greenfield projects elsewhere, especially with infrastructure already nearby.

• Structural Copper Deficit Elevates Strategic Value of North American Supply: Structural copper deficit driven by electrification, grid expansion, and underinvestment in new mines supports long-term pricing. Global supply growth lags demand from EVs, renewables, and AI data centers. North American projects with proven geology and stable jurisdictions gain strategic value as buyers seek secure, domestically sourced supply chains.

Copper above US$13,000 per tonne reflects tariff fears and speculative positioning, not just fundamentals. If trade tensions ease or China's demand weakens, prices could fall sharply. A sustained drop below US$9,000 would compress project economics and delay development timelines, reducing valuation multiples even with strategic backing in place.

The C$32.5m funds drilling and studies, not mine construction. Building Gaspé will require several hundred million more, likely through debt, dilutive equity, or selling the project outright. If copper prices soften or permitting stalls, raising that capital becomes harder and more expensive, pushing production years out and eroding returns.

Strategic investors often take positions without committing to buyouts. Hudbay and Agnico hold stakes but face their own capital priorities and portfolio decisions. If they pass on acquisition or copper sentiment cools, Osisko could trade sideways despite progress, leaving shareholders waiting for a catalyst that doesn't materialize.