Increased Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Economics
Lightbridge believe its fuel can present significant operational savings to large water pressurised reactors with a total current addressable market globally of $16.7 billion
Lightbridge Corporation: The Forgotten Part of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Increasing the efficiency, economics, safety and proliferation of nuclear power
NASDAQ:LTBR
$26.83-3.21%
Updated: Mar 18, 2025
Energy & Materials
microusa
Bull & Bear Case
An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.
Bull Case
Safety and Proliferation
Accident Tolerant Fuels are a set of new technologies enhancing safety at nuclear power plants. The potential safety and economic benefits of the Lightbridge Fuel is born from its innovative design.
AI is Driving Demand for Nuclear Power
AI data centers will increasingly demand stable, reliable energy. Unlike intermittent renewables, nuclear power can meet their continuous needs, making it crucial as AI reliance grows.
Bear Case
Revenue and Funding
Prior to commercialisation, its most immediate risk is funding. The company’s ability to adhere to its projected fuel development timeline is limited by funding constraints.
Regulatory Approval & Commercial Timeline
Lightbridge needs extensive testing, regulatory approvals, and partnerships to commercialise its nuclear fuel technology, which will take at least three to five more years.
HALEU Availability
Establishing HALEU supply chains is crucial, as no commercial suppliers exist in the West. Lightbridge uses DOE and Idaho National Laboratory research samples but these are finite and depleting.
Executive Summary
Lightbridge
Lightbridge is a leading developer of nuclear fuel technology, for both current and future nuclear reactors. It is advancing state-of-the-art fuel technology with the potential to transform the safety, economics, and proliferation resistance of nuclear power plants. What makes Lightbridge interesting is its potential to provide a cutting-edge nuclear fuel solution to improve the operational efficiency of the vast majority of the 440 operational commercial nuclear reactors worldwide.
Investment Thesis
Overview of buy and sell case of the business.
Why Invest?
Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.
10% Increase in Electricity Produced by the Reactor
The uprate in reactor efficiency is a result of Lightbridge Fuel design, its lower operating temperature and the use of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) alloyed with zirconium. The company’s current estimates are $48-100 million in additional revenue per 1.1 GWe reactor.
Significant Cost Savings for Utilities
Lightbridge claims its fuel extends cycles from 18 to 24 months, eliminating a refuelling outage every six years. This could increase revenue by $8-15 million per 1.1 GWe reactor and save $4-5 million in outage costs. Overall, Lightbridge estimates a $60 million annual gross revenue increase per large water-pressurised reactor.
AI Will Continue to Drive Demand for Nuclear Power
AI data centers are expected to significantly increase their demand for clean baseload power as they require stable and reliable energy to operate efficiently. Unlike renewable sources that can be intermittent, nuclear energy can meet the continuous energy needs of data centers. As the reliance on AI and data centers grows, nuclear power is well-positioned to play a crucial role in meeting this rising demand.
Catalysts
The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.
US Nuclear Tailwinds & the ADVANCED Act
The ADVANCE Act could benefit Lightbridge by streamlining NRC processes and reducing approval time and costs for their nuclear fuel. It expedites licensing for advanced fuels, aligning with Lightbridge’s goals. The Act also enhances government coordination, offering more collaboration opportunities, and strengthens the U.S. nuclear supply chain, potentially boosting demand for Lightbridge’s products.
Public and Private Partnerships
Lightbridge is focused on securing government funding to support its advanced nuclear fuel technology development. They have signed a MoU with Oklo Inc. to explore co-locating a commercial fuel fabrication facility and collaborating on advanced fuel recycling. This partnership aims to “enhance synergies, reduce costs, and accelerate innovation in the nuclear energy sector.
Testing Lightbridge Fuel in a Commercial Reactor.
Demonstrating its fuel in a commercial reactor will be a major milestone for Lightbridge. The company is working with Romania’s Institutul de Cercetări Nucleare Pitești to study the compatibility of Lightbridge Fuel with CANDU reactors. These reactors can be refuelled while operating, making them ideal for commercial tests.
Key Risks
Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.
Funding Risk
Prior to commercialisation, the company’s main risk is funding. Adhering to its fuel development timeline depends on securing significant funding and contributions from government and strategic partners. Previously, the company generated revenue through consultancy services, including drafting the UAE’s nuclear power program. Lightbridge should prioritize generating revenue streams to support its timeline and R&D, bridging the gap to commercialization and preventing further share dilution.
Regulatory Hurdles and Extensive Testing
Lightbridge faces significant hurdles in commercialising its nuclear fuel technology, including the need for extensive testing, regulatory approvals, and partnerships with fuel vendors and nuclear utilities. In anticipation of the latter, Lightbridge intends to pursue early engagement with potential utility customers to secure their interest in seeing Lightbridge Fuel commercially deployed and used in their reactors.
Technical and Infrastructure Risks
Technical and infrastructure risks include challenges related to the availability of suitable test loops for irradiation testing, the need for new analytical models specific to Lightbridge Fuel, and the development of a qualified fabrication process for metallic fuel rods. Additionally, establishing a supply chain infrastructure for HALEU is crucial.
Follow the Experts
Quickly navigate key insights from industry experts and leverage their knowledge and market intelligence.
Expert Insights
youtube
"Developments in nuclear fuel are slow, which is why one should pay close attention to Lightbridge who have made great progress, and if successful, may become the global standard in nuclear fuel."
Expert Insights
seeking_alpha
“Lightbridge’s proprietary fuel technology promises to make nuclear power—a reliable source of clean power—more competitive.”
Expert Insights
youtube
"There are some new fuels being developed, accident tolerant fuels. There's a fuel being developed by Lightbridge which is a really a game changer"
Expert Insights
youtube
"SMRs powered with Lightbridge Fuel are expected to have vastly improved load following capability compared to traditional reactors"
Investor Materials
Access the most recent investor updates published by the company.
Lightbridge
AN Evaluation of using metal fuel in light water reactors
ArticleQ3 2024 Financial Results
PDFInvestor Presentation 2024
PDFExternal Insights
A curated collection of third-party content relevant to the company and sector to help inform your investment decision.
Lightbridge Fuel
Accident Tolerant Fuel
ArticleAccident Tolerant Fuel
Team
Meet the experienced professionals leading our organization
Seth Grae
Andrey Mushakov, Ph.D.
Larry Goldman, C.P.A
Scott Holcombe, Ph.D.
What the Pro's Are Asking
Here are the questions that professional investors are asking before making an investment decision.
What is the size of its addressable market?
$20+ billion and growing addressable market for current worldwide nuclear reactor fleet. Lightbridge Fuel is designed to operate with nearly every reactor in the world, including those under construction and planned. Lightbridge Fuel is also usable in coming water-cooled small modular reactors.
When does Lightbridge expect to commercialise its advanced nuclear fuel, and what milestones need to be achieved?
Lightbridge Corporation is making significant progress towards commercialising its advanced nuclear fuel technology. They recently achieved a co-extrusion milestone at Idaho National Laboratory, which is a key step in their development process. However, a clear timeline for full commercialisation has not been provided, leaving some uncertainty for investors and stakeholders. The company continues to work on obtaining regulatory approvals and generating critical data for licensing efforts.
Explain how Lightbridge and MIT collaborate?
In June 2022, Lightbridge announced that MIT had been awarded approximately $800,000 by the DOE Nuclear Energy University Program to study the deployment of Accident Tolerant Fuels in SMRs. The 3-year project, funded entirely by the DOE, simulated the fuel and safety performance of Lightbridge Fuel in a NuScale Power SMR. Its study found that Lightbridge fuel has safety advantages over current nuclear fuel.
What does its MoU with Oklo mean?
Lightbridge Corporation signed a MoU with Oklo Inc. to explore co-locating a commercial fuel fabrication facility at Oklo’s proposed site. The MOU includes plans to conduct a feasibility study and explore opportunities for collaboration in recycling nuclear waste. This partnership aims to enhance synergies, reduce costs, and accelerate innovation in the nuclear energy sector.
Who are its competitors?
Lightbridge’s advanced nuclear fuel technology emphasises safety, efficiency, and proliferation resistance. Compared to competitors like Framatome, GE, and Westinghouse, Lightbridge focuses on higher burnup rates and better thermal conductivity. While Framatome and GE work on ATFs, and Westinghouse’s ADOPT™ fuel is approved, Lightbridge aims to offer significant reactor performance and economic benefits, positioning it as a strong competitor in the ATF market.