Ecofin Global Utilities & Infrastructure Trust plc: Plugged Into Growth

For two decades, electricity demand in the developed world barely grew. That era is over. AI datacentres, the shift to electric vehicles, and the wider push to decarbonise heating and industry are all driving power consumption higher at the same time. The IEA expects datacentre electricity use alone to double by 2030,³ while the electrification of cars and home heating adds a second and third wave of demand on top. This is not a single fragile theme that lives or dies on one technology: it is several structural forces pulling in the same direction at once. EGL's portfolio sits directly in the path of that demand, owning the utilities, generators and grid operators whose volumes, asset bases and investment programmes all grow as the world consumes more power.

What makes these businesses attractive is not just growth, it is the reliability of that growth. The bulk of EGL's portfolio is in regulated and integrated utilities like National Grid, E.ON, Iberdrola and Exelon. Their returns are set by regulators, typically linked to inflation, and earned on capital investment programmes that are funded and visible years in advance. The grid has to be built and maintained regardless of what the economy does, so these companies get paid to invest through good times and bad. National Grid's latest five-year plan alone earmarks £60 billion of investment, expected to grow its asset base by around 10% a year.⁴ It is a rare combination: structural growth delivered through defensive, essential-asset businesses that are insulated from the economic cycle.

Big private equity firms are paying top prices to buy infrastructure assets, raising over $250 billion in 2025 to do so. Yet the same kinds of businesses, water companies, toll roads, power networks, can be bought more cheaply through the stock market, where listed infrastructure trades close to historical lows against the wider market. That gap is the opportunity, and it creates a second possibility: if listed valuations stay depressed, private buyers may simply move in and buy these businesses outright. That dynamic is already visible in the portfolio. In April 2026, infrastructure investor IFM made a takeover offer for EGL holding Atlas Arteria at a premium of up to 18%, though the toll road operator's board rejected it as too low.⁶ The manager expects the gap to close over time, whether through rising share prices or further bid activity.

• Earnings season confirmation: Exelon, Enel, National Grid and others are due to report results shortly. Strong earnings or raised guidance from even a handful of top-ten holdings could sharpen the market's appreciation of the portfolio's growth trajectory.
  
  

• Continued dividend growth: The quarterly dividend was raised 5.9% to 2.25p per share from February 2026.⁷ Further increases above inflation, as targeted, reinforce the trust's income credentials at a time when investors are searching for real yield.

• Regulatory determinations in the UK and US: Several major grid operators, including National Grid and key US utilities, are heading into or through regulatory review processes. Favourable outcomes could confirm higher allowed returns and support earnings upgrades across the portfolio.

• Electrification of heating and transport: The shift from gas boilers and petrol cars to heat pumps and EVs adds a structural tailwind to electricity demand that extends well beyond the current AI cycle. EGL's holdings in regulated distribution businesses are direct beneficiaries of rising volumes flowing through their networks.
  
  

• European grid investment programmes: Germany, Spain, the UK and other European governments have endorsed large multi-year network investment plans over the past few years. E.ON, RWE, Enel, Engie and Iberdrola all have funded capex programmes running into 2030 and beyond. As this investment is deployed and earnings grow, valuations should follow.

Utilities are sometimes compared to bonds: periods of rising yields can put pressure on their valuations. EGL's portfolio is tilted towards long-duration, cash-generative businesses whose appeal includes an income component. If central banks in the US, UK and Europe hold rates higher than markets expect, the valuation multiple applied to these companies could compress, weighing on the trust's NAV even if the underlying businesses keep growing. March 2026, when geopolitical tensions pushed bond yields up, highlighted how quickly sentiment towards infrastructure and utility assets can shift over shorter time frames.

Many of the companies EGL owns operate in regulated environments, where governments and regulators influence the returns, these businesses are allowed to earn. If regulators in the UK, US or Europe become more aggressive in the name of consumer affordability, earnings can come in below expectations. While this is an inherent, sector‑specific feature of investing in regulated utilities, the manager seeks to mitigate it through diversification across jurisdictions and by focusing on companies with robust regulatory frameworks and balance sheets.

EGL reports in sterling, but the majority of the portfolio sits outside the UK, principally in North America and Continental Europe. Movements in the US dollar or euro against sterling will influence the trust’s NAV, independently of the operational performance of the underlying companies, and can either enhance or detract from returns over shorter periods. Geopolitical shocks, like the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, can also lead to broad-based sell offs in global risk assets, including listed utilities and infrastructure, even when company fundamentals remain unchanged. These macro and currency influences tend to be episodic, and the manager’s focus remains on long term cash generative businesses whose valuations should ultimately reflect their underlying earnings and asset.