Private Access that's difficult to get
Early stakes in SpaceX and Stripe capture growth before public markets price it in.
Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust: Owning Tomorrow's Outliers Before They Define the Market
Concentrated bet on rare growth companies, public and private, that could dominate wealth creation over decades, not quarters.
Updated: Dec 12, 2025
Financials & Real Estate
Bull & Bear Case
An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.
Bull Case
Outlier Math Drives All Returns
Just a few winners like SpaceX or Amazon deliver multiples that offset all losers.
Patient Capital in Impatient Markets
Five to ten year horizon lets disruptive models compound while others trade quarterly noise.
Bear Case
Concentration Magnifies Every Mistake
One or two failed bets can erase years of gains with no diversification cushion.
Private Holdings Lock the Money
Illiquid stakes trap capital; down rounds or delayed IPOs kill expected returns permanently.
Volatility Tests Long-Term Conviction
Sharp drawdowns during rate hikes force panic selling, locking in losses before recovery arrives.
Investment Thesis
Overview of buy and sell case of the business.
Why Invest?
Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.
Private Access That's Difficult to Get
Over 35% of the portfolio sits in private companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and BillionToOne, firms reshaping industries before public markets can price them in. Most investors wait years for IPO access; this fund locks in stakes early, capturing the steepest part of the growth curve. As venture funding becomes selective, owning proven private winners before liquidity events creates asymmetric upside unavailable through standard equity funds.
Outlier Math Drives All Returns
Historical data shows 0.3% of companies generate half of stock market wealth creation. Baillie Gifford concentrates on finding these rare outliers, just 58 total holdings with top 10 at 46%, rather than diluting across hundreds. SpaceX, Amazon, and Netflix delivered multi-decade returns by dominating their categories. The strategy targets similar transformational businesses early, betting that a handful of winners will more than offset inevitable losers in a concentrated book.
Patient Capital in Impatient Markets
The fund holds positions for 5-10 years, ignoring quarterly noise that forces most managers to trade. This time horizon advantage lets them back disruptive models, AI infrastructure, biotech breakthroughs, space commercialization, that need years to compound. After 2022's growth stock reset, valuations reflect fundamentals again, not speculation. Capital now flows toward profitable innovators, aligning with Baillie Gifford's discipline: back structural shifts, not hype cycles.
Catalysts
The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.
Private Company Liquidity Events: SpaceX, Stripe, or BillionToOne could announce IPO plans or secondary sales, unlocking immediate valuation uplifts. SpaceX already sits as the largest holding at 6%, meaning any liquidity event directly boosts NAV. Public pricing typically reveals massive gains versus last private funding rounds, attracting new investors seeking exposure to newly liquid winners and potentially narrowing the trust's current 4.7% discount to N
Breakthrough Product Launches in Key Holdings: Major innovations from concentrated positions, whether biotech approvals from BillionToOne (4.7% holding), SpaceX's Starlink becoming a global utility, or new platform launches from Shopify (5.1%), can redefine company trajectories. Single breakthrough moments often trigger re-ratings as markets recognize winner-take-most dynamics, with Baillie Gifford's large stakes capturing disproportionate upside from these inflection points.
Private Market Maturation Rewards Patient Capital: Venture funding selectivity means only the strongest private companies survive and scale. Baillie Gifford's stakes in proven late-stage winners like SpaceX (pursuing reduced launch costs and space tourism) and Stripe (dominating online payments infrastructure) position the fund to harvest decade-long compounding as these firms go public, consolidate industries, or generate cash flow that dwarfs initial valuations. Patient capital wins when impatient money exits early.
Key Risks
Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.
Concentration Magnifies Every Mistake
Holding just 58 names with top 10 at 46% means one failed bet, a private company that burns cash without reaching profitability or a public holding that loses its competitive edge, can severely damage returns. Unlike diversified funds that cushion blows across hundreds of stocks, this portfolio offers no hiding room. Moderna's vaccine market collapse shows how single positions can drag: it became the largest detractor, falling as Covid demand dried up and RSV uptake disappointed.
Private Holdings Lock Your Money
Over 35% of the portfolio sits in illiquid private companies with no daily pricing or exit route. If markets turn or the trust needs capital, these stakes can't be sold quickly without steep discounts. Valuation markups may lag reality for months, creating sudden NAV drops when repriced. Worse, delayed IPOs or down rounds, common when venture funding tightens, mean capital sits trapped in companies that may never deliver the expected liquidity event or return.
Volatility Tests Long-Term Conviction
Growth stocks swing violently during rate hikes, recessions, or sentiment shifts, the trust fell sharply in 2022 when markets rotated away from unprofitable innovators. The fund currently trades at a 4.7% discount to NAV, reflecting investor caution despite recent outperformance. Investors who panic sell during drawdowns lock in losses, missing the eventual recovery that defines the strategy. If macro conditions favor value or defensive stocks for extended periods, this portfolio could underperform for multiple years, testing patience beyond most investors' tolerance.