Atome: Feeding The Future

Villeta is more than just one project. With experienced partners in place and key agreements already signed, the plant can act as a model for future projects in Paraguay and Central America. The project is already well advanced, with a fixed-price construction contract, a long-term sales agreement, and support from major lenders and investors. The latest market disruption also strengthens the case for building fertiliser supply closer to end customers, in stable regions with reliable renewable power. As Villeta moves toward construction, ATOME is also developing follow-on opportunities that could extend growth well beyond its first plant.

Despite clear progress, ATOME’s market value today remains well below the potential value of its projects. This gap gives investors exposure before Villeta enters construction and before the business begins to generate revenue. Management remains closely aligned with shareholders, and backing from groups such as Hy24 and development finance institutions adds credibility. The latest fertiliser market disruption may also improve how investors view ATOME’s assets, because stable local supply in South America is becoming more valuable as global supply chains look less dependable. That leaves the shares offering both project progress and re-rating potential.

Global food demand is rising, while fertiliser production remains carbon-heavy and vulnerable to global disruption. ATOME’s Villeta project, set to produce 260,000 tonnes of low-carbon fertiliser a year from 2028, is aimed at both cleaner farming and more secure regional supply. The latest market update underlines that point: supply shocks in the Middle East have pushed up fertiliser prices and increased the value of local production near major farm markets. With its long-term Yara agreement, renewable power in Paraguay and financing already well advanced, Villeta is increasingly positioned as a strategic supply asset, not just another new plant.

• Start of construction at Villeta following FID in 2026: Following Final Investment Decision, the commencement of construction at Villeta will be a visible signal that the project has moved from development into execution. Early works led by EPC partner Casale would reinforce confidence in delivery timelines, cost control, and ATOME’s ability to execute large-scale infrastructure projects. ATOME has also received an "Excellent" assessment in the SPO provided by Sustainable Fitch, a leading provider of ratings and opinions across all asset classes.

  
  

• New development milestones for projects beyond Villeta: Progress on power supply, land, permits or partner agreements for Paraguay and Costa Rica would show that ATOME can repeat the Villeta model. That matters because the investment case becomes much stronger if Villeta is the first of several plants, rather than a one-off project.

• Final equity sign-off and first visible construction activity at Villeta: The next big proof point is completion of the remaining equity agreements, followed by early site activity and mobilisation. That would show the project has moved beyond planning and financing into real delivery, giving investors clearer confidence that the first plant is now being built.

• Steady construction progress at Villeta: After funding is fully in place, investors will want to see clear progress on construction, equipment delivery and site works. Hitting visible milestones on time would help build confidence that production can start as planned in 2028.

• First production from Villeta in 2028: Bringing Villeta into production would be the moment ATOME starts turning its development story into operating cash flow. It would also prove that low-carbon fertiliser can be produced at scale in South America and sold into a market that increasingly values secure, local supply.

• Second and third projects move closer to build-out: As follow-on projects in Paraguay and Costa Rica advance, investors will start looking at how big ATOME could become beyond Villeta. Success here could materially expand production, diversify risk and turn the company into a broader regional platform.

• ATOME POWER develops into a second growth engine: The new power division is still early, but over time it could give ATOME another source of growth alongside fertiliser. If it secures real projects, it would broaden the story and show the company can build value from renewable infrastructure as well as fertiliser production.

Although ATOME has taken strong steps to de-risk Villeta through fixed-price EPC contracts and partnerships with experienced firms like Casale, infrastructure projects of this scale and complexity often face unexpected challenges. Potential delays in permitting, supply chain issues, or construction overruns could push out the commercial operation date beyond 2028. Furthermore, as a first-of-its-kind green fertiliser plant, Villeta has no direct peer benchmark, which adds uncertainty to cost control, commissioning timelines, and early operational performance.

ATOME’s revenue will depend on long-term demand and pricing for fertiliser, which can move with farm economics, energy markets and global events. Recent disruption has supported prices, but fertiliser markets can still swing sharply in both directions. Although the Yara sales agreement should provide some protection, full pricing details have not been disclosed. If today’s tighter market eases before Villeta starts production, or if buyers are unwilling to pay a premium for lower-carbon fertiliser, returns could come under pressure, especially in the early years.

ATOME’s strategy hinges on bringing in project-level equity investors and securing debt at the asset level, with the parent company maintaining minority stakes. While this capital-light model preserves optionality, it also leaves the company dependent on favourable capital markets and investor appetite. Any failure to close funding rounds on target could delay progress or force less favourable terms. Moreover, if additional capital is needed at the holdco level, equity raises could dilute existing shareholders, especially if share price remains disconnected from net asset value.