Aixtron: Makes the Machines machines behind AI Chips

AIXTRON makes the machines that create chips for AI data centers. As AI demand rises, these chips are in massive demand, and AIXTRON is one of only two companies worldwide that can make the required equipment. When everyone needs the specialized machines and there's almost no competition, they can charge premium prices and watch profits grow.

Once customers buy AIXTRON's €3-5 million machines, they're comitted for years because switching suppliers would cost too much and take too long. The company already has €287 million in confirmed orders, meaning revenue is secured well into 2025, plus customers keep buying more machines as AI data centers expand globally.

AIXTRON generated €110 million in free cash in just nine months - that's a 10% annual yield on today's €1.4 billion market cap. The company runs with 85% equity (almost no debt), meaning when business recovers from the current cycle low, all that cash generation flows straight to shareholders through buybacks or dividends.

• Q4 Earnings Recovery Signal: AIXTRON expects Q4 revenue of €110-130 million after Q3's disappointing €120 million, with management saying orders pushed from Q3 to Q4 create potential upside. If Q4 beats the high end and 2026 guidance comes in above €600 million, the stock could rerate from current cycle-low valuations as investors realize the bottom is behind them.

• Big Order Announcements: Each of AIXTRON's machines costs €3-5 million, so landing just 10-15 new orders moves the needle significantly on quarterly revenue. Watch for press releases about major customers placing orders for their new G10 systems - these announcements typically drive 5-10% single-day stock moves as they signal demand recovery.

• New Factory Opens: AIXTRON's €100 million German facility becomes operational in 2026, doubling production capacity right as the AI data center boom hits full stride. When the facility starts shipping products, it proves the company can scale to meet massive demand, potentially justifying a return toward the €35 peak price from October 2023.

• Electric Car Market Awakens: Car manufacturers will need AIXTRON's chips for electric vehicle charging and power systems starting 2026-2027, creating a second major growth driver beyond AI data centers. Auto industry contracts are typically worth hundreds of millions over multiple years, providing the revenue diversification that could support sustained higher valuations.

• Technology Becomes Mainstream: By 2028-2030, AIXTRON's specialized chips become cheap enough to replace regular silicon chips in everyday electronics like phones and laptops, expanding the market 10x beyond today's niche applications. This transition could drive AIXTRON from a €500 million annual business to €2-3 billion, supporting market caps well above the previous €4 billion peak.

• Quantum Computing Breakthrough: Future quantum computers and advanced AI systems will require even more exotic materials that only AIXTRON's next-generation equipment can produce, creating entirely new revenue streams worth billions annually. Early investments in quantum-related R&D could position AIXTRON as the essential supplier for the next computing revolution after AI.

60% of AIXTRON's sales come from Asia, mostly China, where US trade restrictions could suddenly cut off major customers. If US-China tech tensions escalate, AIXTRON loses its biggest market overnight, and European customers aren't buying enough to replace that revenue.

AIXTRON sells in dollars but pays costs in euros, so when the dollar weakens, profits get reduced. Currency moves already cut 2025 guidance by €35 million, and if the dollar keeps falling, margins could collapse even if business stays strong.

Customers are delaying purchases because better, cheaper technology is coming in 2026-2027. If buyers keep waiting for next-generation equipment, AIXTRON sits with expensive inventory and falling sales until the technology transition completes, which could take years longer than expected.