AST SpaceMobile: The satellite layer for phones, vehicles, and defense is taking shape

Spectrum is basically the "airwaves" that carry wireless signals, whoever owns it, controls who can transmit. AST holds 80-year L-band rights, global S-band, and access to 1,150 MHz (1.15 GHz) of partner spectrum, giving it the raw material required for direct-to-device. SpaceX paid $17B for comparable airwaves, which tells you where the real value sits. AST quietly owns the most strategic frequencies in the industry, and the valuation hasn't caught up.

Google Ventures, Vodafone, American Tower, and Rakuten all hold equity and board seats. They don't just invest, they guide spectrum, regulatory paths, and rollout. A founder with 25% ownership, zero shares sales, and zero salary signals conviction almost unheard of in public markets. With $3.2B raised, AST is fully funded for its first 100 satellites. This is a capital structure built for finishing the job, not selling the dream.

AST's satellites deliver unmatched power into orbit, enabling far more than smartphone broadband. High-value applications include secure data-center links, GPS augmentation, and aviation/maritime IoT. With fixed OpEx of ~$60M per quarter, incremental revenue flows at 90%+. The market has not priced in this optionality.

Block 2 is The Moment AST Proves It’s Real: BlueBird 6 & 7 are the make-or-break satellites, the first full demonstration of the ASIC-powered Block 2 platform. If they deploy cleanly and hit performance targets, AST immediately steps out of the “experimental phase.” The first commercial revenue in 2H26 then gives investors real ARPU and usage behaviour, marking the shift from concept to operating infrastructure.

Hitting 45–60 Satellites will Turn The Network On: Reaching this satellite count unlocks continuous US and European coverage, which is when carriers can finally push mass adoption. Manufacturing scaling to six satellites a month will prove AST can operate with industrial consistency. Meanwhile, the Vodafone sovereign constellation accelerates European regulatory support and positions AST as the non-SpaceX alternative.

From Commercial Operator to Strategic Infrastructure: Golden Dome government contracts could create $100M+ recurring revenue streams. As the constellation expands toward 90 satellites, AST unlocks higher-margin verticals: GPS augmentation, autonomous systems, aviation/maritime IoT, and cloud backhaul. AST becomes a space-based extension of global telecom infrastructure.

The next-generation Block 2 fleet must unfold, process, and deliver signal exactly as designed, and AST needs more than a dozen successful launches to hit 45-60 satellites by 2026. One underperforming satellite can delay commercial coverage and hand Starlink time to close the gap. Technology works; scaling is the stress point.

SpaceX's $17B spectrum buy-in was a strategic strike, giving Starlink the rights needed to accelerate its own direct-to-device roadmap. With millions already testing its early product and a vertically integrated launch engine, Starlink can brute-force timelines. AST holds the technical lead today, but any slip gives SpaceX momentum.

Carrier demand is enthusiastic, but real economics depend on user behaviour. If satellite connectivity becomes "emergency-only," ARPU stays low; if priced too aggressively, adoption slows. With a 50–50 revenue split, AST must prove recurring, everyday usage, not just novelty-driven demand.