Deep-Value Peace Proxy
Ukraine ceasefire triggers immediate multiple expansion from 4.8x to peer 6-7x EV/EBITDA
Veon: The Ukraine Peace Play Nobody Sees
Diversified telecom fundamentals with massive reconstruction upside potential
Updated: Oct 27, 2025
Consumer
Bull & Bear Case
An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.
Bull Case
Diversified Beyond Ukraine
Non-Ukraine markets drive consistent 10%+ EBITDA growth independent of conflict
Infrastructure Value Extraction
Digital platform strategy delivers 3.7x ARPU uplift across emerging markets
Bear Case
Prolonged Conflict Timeline
War drags on indefinitely and peace premium might never materialize
Execution Risk on Monetization
If digital transformation fails, it will only remain as a telecom company
February 2026 Overhang
Kyivstar sale at wrong timing could impact Ukraine exposure.
Investment Thesis
Overview of buy and sell case of the business.
Why Invest?
Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.
Deep-Value Peace Proxy
VEON trades at 4.8x EV/EBITDA versus peer average 6-7x despite owning Ukraine's dominant network with 99% wartime uptime, positioning investors for massive multiple expansion when peace arrives and Ukraine discount evaporates.
Diversified Beyond Ukraine
Kyivstar contributes only one-third of EBITDA while Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan deliver two-thirds of cash flow, providing defensive recurring revenue that markets ignore when pricing pure Ukraine exposure.
Infrastructure Value Extraction
Unlike passive telecoms, management actively monetizes network assets through payments (40M+ wallets), ride-hailing, cloud services, and fintech platforms, driving digital revenue acceleration while competitors stand idle with structural advantages unused.
Catalysts
The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.
Q3 2025 Digital Results: December earnings show if digital revenue keeps growing 50%+ and how SuperApp rollouts are working in Pakistan and Kazakhstan. This proves whether the transformation strategy is actually delivering results.
KYIV Stock Tracking: Kyivstar's Nasdaq stock price since August helps investors value VEON's 89.6% ownership stake. If KYIV performs well, VEON looks cheap compared to what it owns.
SuperApp Growth: ROX platform expands in Pakistan while digital wallets launch in Bangladesh and Uzbekistan. Success here means VEON can make more money from its networks beyond basic phone service.
Peace Talk Progress: Any Ukraine ceasefire news or reconstruction plans boost KYIV stock immediately. VEON benefits because it owns most of Kyivstar and gets the peace upside through public markets.
Ukraine Rebuilding: Post-war reconstruction spending of $500 billion makes Kyivstar the main digital provider for recovery. This drives KYIV stock higher and VEON's big ownership stake becomes very valuable.
Digital Banking Boom: More people in emerging markets get smartphones and start using mobile banking. This creates huge demand for VEON's financial services across all five countries it operates in.
Key Risks
Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.
Prolonged Conflict Timeline
Ukraine war escalation or extended ceasefire negotiations delay peace dividend realization, keeping geopolitical discount intact while reconstruction upside remains theoretical rather than driving immediate value creation for patient investors.
Execution Risk on Monetization
Ambitious digital transformation across five markets faces regulatory hurdles, local competition, and technology integration challenges that could prevent successful infrastructure-to-platform evolution, leaving VEON as traditional telecom despite management ambitions.
Kyivstar Monetization Timing
Kyivstar stake sale to reduce debt could create selling pressure and dilute Ukrainian peace upside if management monetizes position at wrong timing, reducing direct exposure to reconstruction boom.