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IREN: Former Bitcoin Miner Owns the Power AI Companies Need

IREN controls cheap renewable energy and data centers, signing a $9.7 billion Microsoft deal to rent GPU capacity while Bitcoin mining funds the buildout.

Updated: Dec 16, 2025
Energy & Materials
mediumusa

Bull & Bear Case

An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.

Bull Case

Microsoft guarantees $1.9 billion every year

Five-year contract guarantees recurring revenue with 85% margins and prepayment upfront.

Texas energy costs one-third the industry average

Owned renewable energy creates margin advantage and flexibility to arbitrage between mining and AI.

GPU fleet expands from 23,000 to 140,000 chips

Early capacity secures pricing power as enterprise AI demand outpaces new data center supply.

Bear Case

Microsoft terminates if delivery slips

Contract termination clause voids deal if infrastructure delivery misses 2026 timeline.

Bitcoin still generates 95% of cash

Earnings vulnerable to Bitcoin crashes until AI revenue scales in late 2026.

GPU oversupply collapses rental pricing by 2027

Accelerated chip production or cooling AI demand compresses rental rates by 2027.

Investment Thesis

Overview of buy and sell case of the business.

Why Invest?

Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.

Bitcoin Mining Funds AI Expansion

Mining Bitcoin generates over $1 billion in annual cash that IREN uses to build more AI data centers without borrowing money or selling new shares. This self-funding model means the company can expand aggressively while competitors either take on debt or dilute existing shareholders to finance their own growth plans.

Grid Access Secured While Others Queue for Approvals

IREN has 2.9 gigawatts of power already plugged into the grid in Texas and British Columbia, letting customers turn on operations immediately. Competitors and tech giants face multi-year delays to get similar connections approved and built, making IREN's ready-to-use infrastructure a rare and valuable asset as AI companies scramble for computing power.

Full Ownership Drives Superior Margins

The company owns the land, power lines, and buildings—not renting from landlords or utilities. This ownership means it keeps 65-75 cents of every dollar customers pay for space and power, compared to competitors who lease infrastructure and lose a large chunk to middlemen, making IREN's business far more profitable per customer.

Catalysts

The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.

Near term

Microsoft Revenue Recognition Begins: Initial revenue from the $9.7 billion Microsoft contract hits financials in Q1 2026, with prepayments flowing and first GPU deployments going live, proving AI cloud isn't theoretical but actual contracted cash flow scaling toward $1.94 billion annual run-rate.

Medium term

Sweetwater 2GW Energization Complete: The massive Sweetwater hub in Texas comes fully online by late 2026, adding 2 gigawatts of grid-connected capacity that unlocks $3.4 billion AI cloud revenue potential and shifts the narrative from "promising miner" to "infrastructure giant."

Long term

AI Power Crunch Forces Premium Pricing: As U.S. data center demand accelerates toward 123 gigawatts by 2035 and grid bottlenecks worsen, IREN's existing interconnections become strategic assets commanding higher lease rates, potentially doubling margins as scarcity pricing takes hold across the infrastructure layer.

Key Risks

Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.

Microsoft Concentration Creates Renewal Risk

The $9.7 billion Microsoft contract represents most of IREN's near-term AI revenue from just one customer. If Microsoft decides to build its own data centers, negotiates lower prices when renewing in 2030, or simply needs less computing power, IREN loses its anchor tenant and must scramble to fill gigawatts of empty capacity.

Bitcoin Price Collapse Eliminates Funding

IREN mines Bitcoin at $41,000 cost per coin and relies on selling it above $100,000 to generate expansion cash. If Bitcoin crashes and stays below $50,000, mining stops being profitable and the company would need to borrow money or issue new shares to keep building data centers, slowing growth and hurting existing investors.

Sweetwater Delays Would Push Revenue Out

The 2-gigawatt Sweetwater facility in Texas must open on time in 2026 to hit revenue targets and justify the stock price. Infrastructure projects often face delays from permitting issues, equipment shortages, or grid complications, any pushback means revenue arrives 12-24 months late while competitors catch up on their own buildouts.