Gaztransport & Technigaz: GTT Monopolizing AI Baseload Energy

GTT’s membrane technology holds around 92% market share, with no successful rival despite renewed Korean R&D. With 295 vessels in backlog and 19 new LNG carrier orders YTD, every ship still requires GTT’s containment system, creating multi-year licensing revenues from a global fleet expansion increasingly driven by AI-linked energy demand.

A €2 billion+ backlog covering 295 vessels provides durable, high-margin visibility. Management now targets 450+ carrier deliveries through 2034, supported by 84 Mtpa of new LNG projects FID-approved in 2025, locking in licensing flows independent of shipyard geography.

US data centers are on track to add 400 TWh of power demand by 2030, and AI hyperscalers are increasingly contracting LNG-based generation to secure baseload supply. With 84 Mtpa of 2025 FIDs led by the US, GTT’s tech underpins the tank systems enabling this new AI-fuelled LNG buildout.

• Middle East Order Blitz: Qatar’s third expansion phase remains on track, with orders expected through 2026. GTT flagged strong engagement with Asian yards tied to these programs, each order extending licensing revenue visibility.

• US Export Permit Wave: Twelve US projects (≈280 Mtpa) await DOE permits; once cleared, they could drive 200+ carrier builds using GTT membranes, reinforcing 2026–2028 growth visibility.

• Asian Fleet Replacement: Fleet renewal momentum persists, with 40+ older vessels likely replaced by 2027–2028 under tightening emissions rules and IMO energy-efficiency mandates, sustaining LNGC order flow.

• AI Infrastructure Buildout: Hyperscalers continue investing in dedicated LNG-linked power assets, aligning with AI’s 400 TWh incremental demand outlook. These off-grid projects underpin structural gas consumption through 2030.

• Natural Gas Baseload Lock-In: AI-driven power reliability needs are entrenching gas as the key 24/7 fuel through at least 2035, as utilities prioritise stable capacity over renewable intermittency.

• Energy Security Reshoring: European terminal expansion and reshoring initiatives continue amid geopolitical volatility, reinforcing carrier demand growth and supporting GTT’s long-term order visibility.

Scaled green hydrogen could still challenge gas by the 2030s, but delays in electrolyser deployment and high costs persist. GTT’s Elogen division restructuring confirms slow commercial traction, yet future breakthroughs could still erode LNG’s baseload role.

Samsung Heavy and DSME remain active in prototype testing, but have yet to clear regulatory hurdles. Management reiterated that no credible alternative is near certification, keeping GTT’s 92% share intact, though a validated Korean system would pose a future margin risk.

Grid-scale battery deployment is expanding, but data-center operators still prioritise 24/7 reliability, keeping LNG-based power relevant. Technological convergence could eventually trim gas peaking needs, yet current economics still favour baseload LNG over battery storage.